In May 2025, Vietnam’s seafood industry recorded a sharp surge, taking full advantage of the temporary 10% import tariff implemented by the U.S. from April 9 to July 9.
Strong Growth Boosted by Temporary U.S. Tariff Relief
May 2025 marked an impressive acceleration in Vietnam’s seafood exports, driven by smart utilization of a temporary “tax window” in the U.S. market. However, this positive momentum could quickly shift after July 9, when import tariffs are expected to return to higher levels.
In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood export turnover reached over USD 4.34 billion, up 22% compared to the same period in 2024. In May alone, export value hit nearly USD 997 million (+20%), thanks to a preferential tariff of 10% temporarily applied by the U.S. between April 9 and July 9, 2025.
This rate is significantly lower than the 46% previously warned. Seizing this opportunity, many Vietnamese exporters accelerated shipments, helping exports to the U.S. surge to over USD 234 million in May, up 61% – the highest growth among major markets.
Shrimp remained the top-performing item, with USD 1.71 billion in export value over five months (+32%). May alone recorded USD 415 million, the highest monthly figure since the beginning of the year. Pangasius also rebounded, with May up 13% (compared to April’s 4%), and exports to the U.S. specifically recovering 35%. Tuna saw modest growth of 7.6% in May, bringing the five-month total to USD 405 million (+5%).
Other categories such as squid, octopus, crabs, and bivalves all showed positive trends, with bivalves surging 63%.
Concerns After July 9: New Tariff Pressures Ahead
Despite May’s strong performance, experts caution that this growth is likely short-lived. If the 46% tariff is reinstated after July 9, Vietnamese exporters could face multiple risks:
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Soaring operational and tax-related costs
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Disruptions in shipment schedules due to uncompetitive pricing
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Risk of losing orders and being cut from global supply chains
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Rising unemployment in seafood farming and processing zones
Worse still, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) would bear the brunt of the impact due to limited capital access, low flexibility, and weaker negotiation leverage with buyers.
Global Competition Intensifies – Outlook Hinges on Tariff Outcome
Beyond the U.S., Vietnam’s seafood exports to other key markets continued to grow steadily during the first five months:
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EU: +14%
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Japan: +18%
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China – Hong Kong: +50%
- including shrimp (+90%) and bivalves (+285%)
However, Vietnam is facing fierce competition from other countries such as China, India, Thailand, and salmon exporters in South America (e.g., Chile and Brazil), who are well-positioned to capture market share if Vietnam faces tariff restrictions.
Forecasts suggest:
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If the U.S. tariff remains at 10% or is removed, Vietnam’s seafood exports could exceed USD 10 billion in 2025.
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If the 46% tariff is reinstated, total exports may decline to around USD 9 billion, posing long-term risks and severe consequences.
May represented a remarkable sprint in Vietnam’s seafood export performance. However, the sustainability of this growth in the second half of 2025 will entirely depend on the U.S. trade policy after July 9—a key variable that will shape the country’s seafood export landscape for the year.
Source VASEP
