After a strong surge in May, Vietnam’s seafood exports in June 2025 grew modestly by only 4%, reaching USD 876 million. The slowdown was primarily due to a sharp 26% drop in exports to the United States, as businesses pulled back to avoid the upcoming retaliatory tariffs set to take effect after July 9.
H1 Export Value Reaches USD 5.2 Billion, Up Nearly 19% YoY
In the first six months of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood export turnover reached approximately USD 5.2 billion, marking a nearly 19% increase compared to the same period last year. Exports to the US totaled USD 891 million, up 16% thanks to accelerated shipments before the expected tariff hike. However, in June, many exporters halted shipments to the US to mitigate the risk of high import duties.
Meanwhile, other Asian markets continued strong momentum. Exports to China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries grew by 15% to nearly 28% in June. In contrast, exports to the EU remained flat (–1%), while the Middle East declined significantly (–16%) due to geopolitical tensions. Notably, exports to Israel – a major market for canned tuna – plunged more than 50%.
Tuna Sees Sharpest Decline; Shrimp and Pangasius Growth Slows
Among key product categories, tuna recorded the sharpest decline, down over 31% year-on-year in June, mainly due to tariff-related disruptions in the US market. For the six-month period, tuna exports fell nearly 2%.
Shrimp and pangasius (tra fish) continued growing but at a slower pace:
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Shrimp exports reached USD 2.07 billion, up 26% YoY.
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Pangasius exports hit USD 1 billion, up 10% YoY.
While both categories remain the pillars of Vietnam’s seafood exports, the shrimp sector faces heightened risk from multiple trade barriers, including retaliatory tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and countervailing duties – which could severely affect pricing and profitability.
On the brighter side, the pangasius industry received good news from the US Department of Commerce (DOC), which announced the final results of the 20th administrative review (POR20), granting zero anti-dumping duties to seven Vietnamese exporters. If the upcoming retaliatory tariff is moderate, pangasius may regain momentum in H2.
Two Possible Scenarios for H2 2025 Seafood Exports
With the US remaining a pivotal market, Vietnam’s seafood sector faces two key scenarios in the latter half of 2025:
Scenario 1 – 10% Retaliatory Tariff:
Total seafood exports could reach around USD 9.5 billion for 2025, down USD 500 million from earlier projections. Other markets like China, Japan, the EU, and ASEAN could absorb some diverted shipments from the US.
Scenario 2 – Tariffs Above 10%, Up to 46%:
Exports may fall more sharply, to USD 9 billion or lower. The US would no longer be a stable destination, especially for value chain-intensive products like shrimp and tuna. Competition from low-tariff countries such as Ecuador, India, Thailand, and Indonesia would intensify.
Even though neutral markets like Japan, the EU, and ASEAN may offer some buffer, their ability to fully offset the loss is limited amid sluggish global demand.
Vietnam’s seafood industry is navigating a volatile trade landscape in 2025. The second half of the year hinges heavily on US tariff policies. To maintain sustainable growth, businesses must diversify export markets, increase product value, and enhance compliance with global quality standards.
