At the Q2/2025 regular press briefing held by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) on June 19, the Import and Export Department provided key updates on export activities, particularly the implications of U.S. countervailing duties, rising sea freight rates, and the progress of the Import–Export Strategy for 2021–2030.
Export Under Pressure: Policy Shifts and Logistics Disruptions
According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai – Deputy Director General of the Import and Export Department – the U.S. announced the imposition of countervailing duties on certain countries starting April 2, 2025. However, on April 9, the U.S. decided to temporarily suspend these tariffs for 90 days, allowing exporters from countries including Vietnam to continue trading under previous duty rates during this period.
For China specifically, the initially proposed tariff rate was as high as 145%, but following negotiations on May 12, it was revised down to 30%. This rapid policy shift triggered a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S., leading to increased congestion in cargo flow, vessel concentration, and container demand.
As a result, freight rates spiked sharply. The cost to ship a 40-foot container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast rose from the previous average of $2,500–$3,000 to $4,000 or more. Regional shortages of containers have also emerged—not only in China and Vietnam, but also in other Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
In addition, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—particularly between Iran and Israel—have had ripple effects on global shipping routes. If vessels are forced to avoid strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal, they may need to reroute via Africa, significantly increasing costs and transit times to Europe and the U.S. East Coast.
Enterprises Urged to Stay Alert and Diversify Logistics Options
Given these volatile developments, the Import and Export Department recommends that exporters:
- Closely monitor freight market fluctuations
- Coordinate proactively with international partners
- Exercise caution in logistics and shipping contracts
- Explore alternative transport solutions, such as cross-border rail links to Europe
Regulatory agencies, including the MOIT and the Vietnam Maritime Administration, are actively monitoring the situation and will provide timely guidance and support to businesses.
Vietnam’s Import–Export Strategy 2021–2030: Promising Progress, but Adjustments Needed
Regarding the implementation of the Import–Export Strategy for 2021–2030, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai stated that although only halfway through the period, early results are encouraging. Key indicators—including export turnover, market expansion, and product diversification—show positive progress.
However, certain challenges have emerged:
- Trade imbalance with key markets: Vietnam is running a large trade deficit with China, while enjoying substantial trade surpluses with the U.S. and EU, creating an uneven trade structure.
- Limited added value in export products, which poses obstacles to enhancing transparency, traceability, and compliance with international quality standards.
To address these issues, the MOIT has tasked the Import and Export Department with conducting a midterm review and comprehensive assessment of the strategy’s implementation. In accordance with the five-year evaluation cycle, the Ministry will solicit feedback from relevant stakeholders and, if necessary, propose adjustments for government approval.
