July 2025 saw a significant boost in Vietnam’s seafood export value, reaching nearly USD 1 billion. Behind this impressive figure lies an urgent push from exporters to fulfill U.S.-bound orders before the new 20% tariff takes effect. These policy changes, coupled with shifting market dynamics, are reshaping Vietnam’s seafood export landscape in the second half of the year.
Vietnamese seafood accelerates ahead of U.S. tariff deadline
Vietnam’s seafood exports reached USD 971 million in July 2025 (+6.1% YoY), bringing the 7-month total to USD 6.22 billion – a robust 17.2% increase. The surge was driven by companies expediting shipments to the U.S. ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
Contrasting trends: U.S. vs China
U.S. exports fell 19.6% in July to USD 145.8 million due to mounting concerns over retaliatory tariffs (20%) and ongoing antidumping/countervailing duties, including a 33.29% preliminary shrimp rate from POR19. In contrast, China surged with USD 221.5 million in July (+31.7%) and USD 1.33 billion YTD (+42.6%), thanks to strong demand for shrimp and squid and strategic shifts in market focus and FTA benefits.
Shrimp, pangasius, and tuna under tax pressure
Shrimp remained the top export item at USD 2.49 billion (+23.6%), yet faces headwinds in the U.S. due to high AD duties. The potential 33.29% final rate in December could severely limit market access.
Pangasius showed promise with USD 1.22 billion in exports (+11.1%), buoyed by 0% AD duty for eight major exporters (POR20). However, looming retaliatory tariffs may erode gains.
Tuna struggled with raw material shortages caused by local regulations (Decree 37) and EU quota constraints, reducing 7-month exports to USD 542 million (–2.8%).
Navigating headwinds and seizing new opportunities
As of August 7, the 20% U.S. retaliatory tariff takes effect, putting Vietnam at a disadvantage against rivals like Ecuador (15%), Indonesia, and the Philippines (19%). Combined with MMPA-related barriers, Vietnamese products face tougher competition.
Still, recovery in markets like China, ASEAN, and Japan – along with tariff benefits under EVFTA, CPTPP, and UKVFTA – presents room for growth. 2025 exports are forecast to reach USD 9–9.2 billion, with shrimp at USD 3.6–3.8 billion, pangasius at USD 1.8 billion, and tuna at USD 850–900 million.
To achieve these targets, Vietnamese businesses must ensure raw material supply, improve product quality, invest in processing tech, and diversify into niche and intra-Asian markets.
