By the end of Q3 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports reached USD 2.7 billion, up 10% YoY, though lower than the first two quarters. Cumulative exports for the first nine months reached USD 8.36 billion (+16%), reflecting continued positive momentum despite pressures. The slight slowdown in Q3 reflects the impact of the 20% US retaliatory tariff implemented from August, forcing businesses to adjust delivery plans and explore alternative markets.
In product composition, shrimp remains the leading export at USD 3.4 billion (+22%), the highest in three years. Pangasius reached USD 1.6 billion (+9%), supported by recovery in CPTPP and Middle East markets. Squid, octopus, shellfish, and crab recorded double-digit growth, while tuna slightly declined due to raw material shortages and Middle East conflicts affecting supply chains.
Source: VASEP
Key export markets include China & Hong Kong (USD 1.8B, +34%), USA (USD 1.4B, +8.4%), Japan (USD 1.3B, +17%), and EU (USD 884M, +13%). Notably, CPTPP continues to grow impressively +25%, reflecting the effectiveness of free trade agreements in diversifying markets.
However, Q3 also highlighted challenges. US retaliatory tariffs, stricter traceability regulations, and MMPA rules are major barriers for Q4 2025 and 2026. The EU IUU yellow card remains, limiting access for wild-caught seafood in high-end markets. Additionally, currency fluctuations, rising logistics costs, and competition from India, Ecuador, Indonesia put pressure on Vietnamese exporters’ profitability.
Nevertheless, strategic opportunities remain. The EU has eased technical barriers for aquaculture products, boosting growth potential for shrimp and pangasius. CPTPP expansion with the UK diversifies trade channels and premium processed product opportunities. China maintains high demand for fresh and premium HORECA products, especially in year-end months.
Q4 2025 exports are projected at USD 2.19B, down 22% YoY due to tariffs and potential US anti-dumping duties on shrimp. Shrimp and pangasius – the mainstay products – are expected to slow, while tuna, squid, and octopus face challenges from IUU and MMPA regulations. EU and China remain stable demand anchors, supporting 2025 total exports at USD 10.5B (+5%).
Q1 2026 is forecasted to continue declining due to cascading tariff and MMPA impacts. From Q2 2026 onward, recovery will depend on Vietnam’s ability to remove tariff and IUU barriers, diversify markets, and increase high-value processed products’ share.
